US Presidential Election 2024: Finer Details to Know
Here is a link to the blog from four years ago — yes, these blogs now have
been written for four years and counting — on the US electoral
college system. Some things remain the same. Either candidate has a chance to win. The election will be about winning a handful of battleground states, and those states are still the ones in play. Pennsylvania holds the key as it did in 2020. If elected, Trump will become the oldest President ever, older than Biden was when he was elected in 2020.
Unlike 2020, Trump is not the incumbent President, and he will face
Harris, not Biden. The electoral college of 2024 is slightly different
in terms of delegate allocation because state populations have
shifted. Pennsylvania, for example, has only 19 delegates instead of
20. If Harris were to win all the states Biden won in 2020, she would
secure only 303 delegates instead of 306. Trump’s share will go up
from 232 to 235. Despite this change, if Harris were to win only the
“blue wall” battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and
Pennsylvania, she would still secure 270 delegates (to Trump’s 268)
and win the presidency. But there is a “big if” or two.
The first concerns delegate allocation in Nebraska. Unlike other
states where the state’s popular vote winner gets all the delegates,
Nebraska (and Maine) split their delegates based on which candidates
win their congressional districts. This meant that Biden secured one
delegate winning Nebraska’s second district and Trump secured one in
Maine, though the other candidate took the rest. Nebraska’s second
district is competitive, and the redrawing of its borders to include
more rural areas of the state might make it harder for Harris to win.
If she doesn’t win that district, her delegate total will be tied with
Trump at 269. The tiebreaker rules are such that Trump will be
President if there is a tie.
To add to the palace intrigue, Nebraska is considering a rule change in the next month by which it will become a winner-take-all state. This will mean Harris will have to win more than the blue-wall battleground states. That is unless Maine counters Nebraska, and also becomes a winner-take-all state! We should know before the end of September.
At the time of writing, in addition to the three Midwestern states,
Arizona and Nevada in the West and Georgia and North Carolina in the
South are finely poised. The easiest path for Trump is to win Georgia,
North Carolina (which he won in 2020), and Pennsylvania. For
Harris, the easiest path is to win the blue-wall states, which
includes Pennsylvania. Both candidates can make up for a loss
elsewhere by winning Arizona and Nevada with a total of 17 delegates,
but not a loss of Pennsylvania with 19 delegates. All eyes on election
night again will be on Pennsylvania.
Unless they are on Georgia. Why? Recent laws passed in Georgia can be
used by county-level officials to delay certification of results
there. If the party of the losing candidate in Georgia pursues this
path and the victor needs Georgia’s delegates to be president, the US
Supreme Court will become the ultimate arbiter — a scenario not unlike
what played out in 2000.
Much can happen between now and the election, starting with the
presidential debate in Philadelphia on September 10. It’s not just the
US presidency that is on a razor’s edge. So is the control of the US
Senate and US House of Representatives. While retaining the Senate is
a challenge for Democrats, retaining the House is a challenge for
Republicans. A divided government appears more likely than not.
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