US Elections 2024: Is Biden Vs Trump Over?
Happy July Fourth! The 2024 US elections are taking center stage, even as the French electorate shift their country further right and the voters in the United Kingdom pull back from 14 years of conservative governance. Nearly 250 years since independence, American democracy finds itself In a precarious state. On this Independence Day in the US, those expecting relief from Biden vs Trump should be ready for disappointment. The stage is set. It will be a rematch of 2020.
The debate. The first presidential debate between 2024 candidates Biden and Trump in June confirmed the worst fears of many Democrats: Biden has indeed aged, and his age will remain a primary factor in the minds of the voters. The visual images of a faltering and incoherent Biden are there for everyone to see. For the undecided voters, it was a mixed bag. As terrible as Biden’s performance was, Trump’s evasive responses and frequent untrue assertions leave them in the same uneasy place they have always been about his candidacy.
Why Biden will be the Democratic nominee. The Democratic National Convention (DNC) is set for mid-August, about six weeks from now. Even if President Biden decides to step aside, having won the most delegates through primaries fairly and squarely, it is his decision to make as per party rules. There is not enough time for the party to coalesce behind a single candidate before the convention. While many replacement possibilities exist in the abstract, it is only in the abstract. It is far from certain any alternative nominee, introduced to the country in August, will fare better in November. To underscore how very unlikely it is that Biden will be replaced, here is a funny quip from a wise young man: Maybe the party can get behind former one-term president Jimmy Carter who is now more popular than ever and who is only 99! Indeed.
Biden’s bad debate doesn’t fundamentally change the race. The Biden government’s border and foreign policies along with its accomplishments from the pandemic-time 2021 America Rescue Plan to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act for climate and infrastructure improvement have both supporters and detractors. His lackluster debate performance may make a difference to some voters in a close election.
Why the race will remain close. Like Biden, Trump has those who like his prior government’s actions and policies and who don’t. The difficulty for him to close the door on Biden stems from the fact he gives voters a variety of other reasons to pause. For some, it is his appointments of justices to the Supreme Court who decided to overturn the popular and nearly 50-year old landmark decision Roe v Wade on women’s right to abortion in 2022. For others, it is his actions leading up to the assault on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 to upend the results of 2020 election. It is his lurid scandals and felony convictions for others. His sometimes crude language and his flirtation with hateful rhetoric and groups alarm yet others.
July 4 Prediction. US presidential elections are decided by independent state-by-state contests for electoral delegates. The states that have been the battle ground in recent elections remain the same, except Georgia which looks likely to switch from Biden to Trump, mostly because of the state’s popular Republican Governor who stood up against Trump’s election denials in Georgia. Arizona and Nevada in the southwest, and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Midwest hold the key. Polls before the debate showed Trump with a small lead over Biden in these states. The lead is within the margin of error of the polls.
The June debate and the July Republican National Convention will almost certainly enhance Trump’s lead over Biden in the polls. Typically, a double-digit lead is too difficult to overcome, but anything less could evaporate for a myriad of reasons, including unexpected national or international events. So the presidential election remains a toss-up — in spite of the debate — unless polls in a month tell us otherwise. As the saying goes, after all, it’s not over till it is over.
You can see 2024 global election predictions here and 2020 US Election predictions here. Enjoy the long holiday weekend!
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