Toward a Steady State and Normalcy in This Pandemic
The pandemic has taught people and countries across the world one single lesson repeatedly: Until the virus is eradicated everywhere, it is eradicated nowhere. The virus will mutate. Current vaccines will be largely effective but will not be foolproof. Periodic vaccinations maybe required for the foreseeable future till a more long-term vaccination breakthrough emerges.
What does the steady state look like? Coronavirus will not be eradicated. Large majorities of populations will be vaccinated, but many millions will remain unvaccinated, for one reason or the other. There are only so many carrots and sticks that governments and societies can employ. There will be millions who will be impervious to all of them. Those who are vaccinated, to a smaller extent, and the unvaccinated, to a larger extent, will contract and continue to spread the virus. There will be a uniform proactive plan, as opposed to a reactive plan, to mitigate transmission within local units of gathering or across international borders that involves a combination of vaccination and dependable testing.
What is normalcy? It is when our hospitals have the capacity and their staff have the ability to care for those who get sick as they did before the pandemic — regardless of whether the patients are sick with the coronavirus or other ailments. While the virus differs from seasonal flu in how infectious it is and in how injurious it is, it is the sheer number that need hospitalization and intensive care that overwhelms our healthcare capacity. People get sick for many reasons and need care. That is normal. What is not normal is emaciated hospital workers, exhausted hospital beds, and an enduring death toll. All that needs to change. Seasonal flu in America just does not cause 1,000 deaths per day.
The global response and our own individual response to news and events of the virus need to reach a steady state. The good thing about following the best available advice always is that it is not necessary to recalibrate our collective or individual behaviors at the whim of the virus and political undercurrents. Just about the only ways to limit the virus spread are maximizing the reach of vaccination across the world and minimizing our own indoor exposure without masks. Protecting underprivileged essential workers has to remain a priority. Getting together occasionally with a few vaccinated others indoor and shopping at a store briefly with a protective mask seem safe.
For the first time in this pandemic, I am considering attending a holiday gathering of about 40 that is currently planned as an indoor event in a large space. Almost all, but possibly not all attendees will be vaccinated. I expect few to wear a mask. I will wear a KN95 mask if I attend. Would I be comfortable with a momentary lowering of my mask for an occasional sip or a bite? You have to wait for the next blog! I have pointed out to the organizers that the weather forecast is favorable and that the event could be outdoors.
As we approach the end of the year and we consider giving, I suggest Feeding America or a local organization that helps reduce hunger where you live. Happy holidays!
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