Pandemic, Presidency, and Probability

The President is sick with Coronavirus and all of us wish him and his wife a speedy recovery. There is likely a lesson or two here for all of us — about taming the virus and probability.

While people who are routinely careless in exposing themselves to virus risk might get lucky and evade it, others who are exceptionally careful might yet contract it. Just that more virus exposure means that a bad outcome is more likely.

An example of the first kind is the President. Should the President have gotten the virus? No. Given the world’s best support system around him, it should be highly unlikely. Was he just unlucky? No. He had frequent, unprotected interactions with many who were discouraged from mask-wearing. Expose yourself to virus risk carelessly and routinely, and sooner or later, you will be exposed! A bad outcome is highly likely. That is our first lesson.

An example of the careful kind is Vice-President Biden. Is he lucky not to have the virus? No. Mask-wearing practices of his entourage make it unlikely that he would contract the virus. Even so, perhaps he exposed himself to a one-time virus risk for 90 minutes when he engaged with a possibly infected President Trump in the first debate — without masks, but socially distanced. That encounter makes a bad outcome slightly more likely for Biden. This is our next lesson. That we have stayed vigilant for many months does not give us a pass on our next interaction and exposure today.

Probabilistic reasoning is difficult for many of us because it is about uncertainty. We could not have predicted that the President would get the virus. Only that it was highly likely, based on his behavior. We cannot say for sure that Biden would not get the virus. Only that it is less likely.

Not much is certain. It is highly likely that the President will recover within two to three weeks; that the candidates will be remote for the remaining Presidential debates; and that the election will take place on November 3. If none of these happen, be surprised. But understand that can happen.

When we hear a candidate is more likely to win an election, it is not a certainty. The election is not over. That is the only certainty. Let us vote!

A bit about me.

Whether playing cards and running on the streets in this pandemic, I am thinking about probability!