Out of the Pandemic into a Coin Flip for a Miracle US President
With less than a week to go for the elections on November 5, the election for the US President between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is incredibly close. Every national and battleground state poll tells the same story: Differences in voter preferences between the two candidates are within the margins of error. The winner would have taken a path unlike anything ever seen in US political history.
First, the once-in-a-century pandemic from four years ago. It was the story of the 2020 US elections when voting paradigms fundamentally changed. The then President Trump had contracted Covid and was seriously ill just a month before the election. Countries were still reeling with thousands of weekly deaths. It was a crisis in the US, and the electorate did not approve of the government’s handling of that crisis. Trump lost.
Next, the continued impact of the pandemic since 2020. In some countries, the economies collapsed completely leaving millions in poverty. That collapse led to a historic migration to the US southern border. At the same time, governments in wealthier nations, such as the US and those in Europe, faced with supply-chain difficulties and massive unemployment passed bills to protect the vulnerable. Trump and Biden administrations each infused $2 trillion into the US economy, causing inflation to rise. Unlike others, the US economy has now rebounded with job and wage growth and a historically low unemployment rate even as inflation and interest rates have eased. Yet the earlier inflation increase has meant that prices of essential commodities are about 20% higher now than they were four years ago, instead of, say, only about 10% under a normal scenario. The more than typical migration and price increases — both pandemic-induced — are casting long shadows on the 2024 elections. By no means, the US is an exception. The pandemic has affected the political trajectories of many countries in the world, large or small, including Botswana, France, India, Sri Lanka, and the United Kingdom. Incumbents have faced headwinds.
With that backdrop, the next US President — whoever it is, would have overcome steep odds and achieved nothing short of a miraculous win. Being a candidate with a chance to win is miraculous enough.
Trump’s path is unprecedented: A former President who lost and was impeached twice yet found a way to win his party’s nomination easily four years later. Accused of federal crimes, including an effort to undo the result of the 2020 election on January 6, 2021, he found a way to avoid any trial for nearly four years. He escaped an assassin’s bullet that came within an earshot of killing him. He is still standing and will be the oldest President to be elected if he wins.
The ascent is just as miraculous for Harris. Her opportunity came, when President Biden faltered on stage and decided not to seek reelection — a rare event in politics. The Sunday in July she received the call and endorsement from Biden, she made nearly one hundred well-placed calls, and within a couple of days, cemented her position as the standard bearer of her party. Running an abbreviated campaign, marked by discipline in about three months, unlike anything seen in recent US history, now she too stands on the precipice of the US presidency.
The 2024 election is historic for many reasons. The gender divide — driven by a US Supreme Court decision to undo the landmark Roe v Wade federal law that gave women control over their bodies — is extraordinary. It could be the story on election night. Alternatively, it could be down to something more routine: Which way is the price of a gallon of gas (which is down about 12% from a year ago) going in Biden’s hometown, Scranton, Pennsylvania, a swing district in a battleground state?
Happy Diwali and happy Halloween!
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
If you wish to be included in the mailing list to receive VijayViolet writings as they are published, please email vijayviolet2020@gmail.com with Subscribe in the subject line. To unsubscribe, write mail with Unsubscribe in the subject line. There will be no unwanted mails. Your email will not be distributed.
