Forecasting 2022 American Midterm Elections
In the elections on November 8, 2022, about a third of the 100 US Senate seats and all 435 seats in the US Congress will be decided. The way American political institutions — Democratic and Republican parties — have protected their interests ensures that most of the races will not be competitive and that incumbents have a decisive advantage. So the election is about a few seats.
The present US Senate is equally divided with 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans. Since Vice-President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, holds the tie breaking vote Democrats control the Senate. Republicans need to win only a single additional seat to take control, but the likelihood is that they will come up short, leaving Democrats in control. Here is an analysis.
Pennsylvania, where the Republican incumbent is retiring, holds the key; Fetterman, the popular Democratic candidate is ahead in the polls, though he is recovering from a serious stroke he suffered in May and his campaigning has been curtailed. If Fetterman wins, Republicans must win against at least two Democratic incumbents. In Georgia, pastor Warnock is easily the better qualified, but his Republican opponent might benefit from changes in voting laws and the coattails of Governor Kemp who is popular for standing up to uphold 2020 Georgia elections against the onslaught of attacks on their integrity. In Colorado and Nevada, the Republican challengers to Democratic incumbents are strong. Conversely, the Republican incumbent in Wisconsin faces a strong challenge.
In the US House of Representatives, only a handful of seats separate the Democrats and Republicans. A change of just 5 seats (out of 435) will put Republicans in control of the Congress, and it seems highly likely that will happen. Here’s a simple analysis.
Every decade based on the US census, to account for changes in population, Congressional districts in each state may be redrawn by those in control of the states. The net result of redistricting for 2022 elections is a decisive advantage for Republicans. The redistricting of Florida and Texas alone is designed to ensure a six-seat swing and provide the margin needed for changing the control of the Congress.
While news of the virus and the war recedes to the background, the fight for women’s reproductive rights and action for climate change are taking center stage. There may yet be surprises. But the probability is that on election night, or later after lawsuits, both parties will be celebrating a divided House. Here is the writing on 2020 American Presidential election, also with a note on Pennsylvania, and you can see how that went!
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