2024 US Elections in A Nutshell
The US elections are finely poised with about a month to go before the elections on November 5, 2024. In addition to the presidency, control of the US Senate and the US House of Representatives are at stake. Party control of both chambers might switch.
In the Senate with 100 seats, all eyes are on Montana where incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is trying to hold on in a deeply red state. He is behind in the polls. If he loses, to compensate for his loss and to retain control of the Senate, Democrats need to beat Republican incumbents in Florida or Texas which is possible but not likely. Tester has beaten the odds before. Other Senate races to watch are in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin where Democrats are hoping to retain seats. With one month to go, advantage Senate Republicans.
The opposite scenario is playing out In the US House with 435 seats. The focus is on a handful of districts across the country, notably in the blue states of California and New York, where Republican incumbents are trying to hold on. Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket in both these states has energized Democratic voters, and the higher voter turnout in 2024 compared to 2022 might lead to just enough upsets to switch control of the House. A marginal advantage to the House Democrats.
The race for presidency between Harris and Trump remains on a razor’s edge. An excellent debate by Harris in September has boosted her but it hasn’t helped put any distance between her and Trump. She maintains a consistent, but small lead in national popularity polls, just like the Democratic presidential candidates before her, in an irrelevant popularity contest. The all-important race is to win the presidential electoral college, where delegates are allocated state by state. Multiple, and sometimes contradicting polls show a tight race in seven battleground states.
It appears that Nebraska will retain its unusual tradition of splitting presidential delegates, a possibility noted earlier. Consequently, if Harris wins the second district and its single delegate in Nebraska, winning the “blue wall” Midwest states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will give her exactly 270 delegates needed to become President. (Nebraska politics could yet change before the election, however.)
The dynamics of the Midwest states are roughly this: Pennsylvania has a sizable population of Catholic and Jewish voters. How well Harris can keep the voters who helped elect Governor Josh Shapiro, an observant Jew, in 2022 and Biden, a practicing Catholic from Scranton, in 2020 might determine the race for the state. In neighboring Michigan with a sizable population of Muslims, Harris will have to win over them as well as other reluctant “uncommitted” voters unimpressed by the US handling of Gaza war. In Wisconsin, local elections, where Democratic chances have improved because of less gerrymandering, might boost Harris. Third-party candidate Jill Stein of Green Party is on the ballot in all battleground states whereas Robert F. Kennedy is on the ballot in some states, including Wisconsin. They might play spoilers. In all Midwest states, Harris’ choice for VP, Tim Walz, Minnesota Governor with rural roots could be a factor.
In the southern states of Georgia and North Carolina, which Biden and Trump won, respectively, by small margins in 2020, how well the parties succeed in getting out their voters will determine the race. Georgia has a popular Republican Governor but the Republican candidate for Governor in North Carolina is deeply unpopular.
In the West, the border state of Arizona has two ballot measures, one that ensures a constitutional right for abortion and another that makes border crossing a state crime, have energized both camps. (The latter law may not hold up under legal scrutiny.) Nevada is unpredictable. It has elected Democrats and Republicans to statewide offices in close races. Winning Nevada by itself might not help either candidate, because it has only six delegates. But when combined with a win in Arizona for a total of 17 delegates, it could help offset a loss in Georgia, Michigan, or North Carolina.
Here is the 2020 election analysis writing, and here are ones on pandemic-era mail-in ballotting and early voting. November 5 is close, yet far away. Will there be an October surprise — a national or an international event or a second presidential debate? Will it impact the few undecided voters?
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